See also: target
- 1 What is "difficulty"?
- 2 How often does the difficulty change?
- 3 What is the formula for difficulty?
- 4 How is difficulty stored in blocks?
- 5 What is the current difficulty?
- 6 What is the maximum difficulty?
- 7 Can the difficulty go down?
- 8 What is the minimum difficulty?
- 9 What network hash rate results in a given difficulty?
- 10 How soon might I expect to generate a block?
What is "difficulty"?
Difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to find a new block compared to the easiest it can ever be.
How often does the difficulty change?
Every 2016 blocks.
What is the formula for difficulty?
difficulty = maximum_target / current_target
(target is a 256 bit number)
How is difficulty stored in blocks?
Each block stores a packed representation (called "Bits") for its actual hexadecimal target. The target can be derived from it via a predefined formula. For example, if the packed target in the block is 0x1b0404cb, the hexadecimal target is
0x0404cb * 2**(8*(0x1b - 3)) = 0x00000000000404CB000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
The highest possible target (difficulty 1) is defined as 0x1d00ffff, which gives us a hex target of
0x00ffff * 2**(8*(0x1d - 3)) = 0x00000000FFFF0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
So the difficulty at 0x1b0404cb is therefore:
0x00000000FFFF0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 / 0x00000000000404CB000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 = 16307.420938523983
What is the current difficulty?
Current difficulty, as output by BitCoin's getDifficulty.
What is the maximum difficulty?
The maximum difficulty is roughly: maximum_target / 1, which is a ridiculously huge number (about 2^224).
The actual maximum difficulty is when current_target=0, but we would not be able to calculate the difficulty if that happened. (fortunately it never will, so we're ok.)
Can the difficulty go down?
Yes it can. See discussion in target.
What is the minimum difficulty?
The minimum difficulty, when the target is at the maximum allowed value, is 1.
What network hash rate results in a given difficulty?
The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks. At the desired rate of one block each 10 minutes, 2016 blocks would take exactly two weeks to find. If the previous 2016 blocks took more than two weeks to find, the difficulty is reduced. If they took less than two weeks, the difficulty is increased. The change in difficulty is in proportion to the amount of time over or under two weeks the previous 2016 blocks took to find.
To find a block, the hash must be less than the target. The hash is effectively a random number between 0 and 2**256-1. The offset for difficulty 1 is
0xffff * 2**208
and for difficulty D is
0xffff * 2**208)/D
The expected number of hashes we need to calculate to find a block with difficulty D is therefore
D * 2**256 / (0xffff * 2**208)
D * 2**48 / 0xffff
The difficulty is set such that the previous 2016 blocks would have been found at the rate of one every 10 minutes, so we were calculating (D * 2**48 / 0xffff) hashes in 600 seconds. That means the hash rate of the network was
D * 2**48 / 0xffff / 600
over the previous 2016 blocks. Can be further simplified to
D * 2**32 / 600
without much loss of accuracy.
At difficulty 1, that is around 7 Mhashes per second.
At the time of writing, the difficulty is 22012.4941572, which means that over the previous set of 2016 blocks found the average network hash rate was
22012.4941572 * 2**32 / 600 = around 157 Ghashes per second.
How soon might I expect to generate a block?
(The eternal question.)
The average time to find a block can be approximated by calculating:
time = difficulty * 2**32 / hashrate
where difficulty is the current difficulty, hashrate is the number of hashes your miner calculates per second, and time is the average in seconds between the blocks you find.
For example, using Python we calculate the average time to generate a block using a 1Ghash/s mining rig when the difficulty is 20000:
$ python -c "print 20000 * 2**32 / 10**9 / 60 / 60.0" 23.85
and find that it takes just under 24 hours on average.
- Any one grinding of the hash stands the same chance of "winning" as any other. The numbers game is how many attempts your hardware can make per second.
- You need to know the difficulty (above) and your khash/sec rate (reported by the client).
- Mining Hardware Comparison has some stats that may help you predict what you could get.
- Visit a calculator or perform the maths yourself,
- Remember it's just probability! There are no guarantees you will win every N days.